【原版杂志阅读】19期 Day 1：（The economist）A new age of space exploration is beginning

The next 50 years in space

A new age of space exploration is beginning

It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive

1. The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.

知识点：

1. plant one’s foot on the surface 留下脚印

补充：My brother planted himself on the sofa in front of the television

补充：Who planted these rumours?

set one’s foot on the surface of the Moon

(动词搭配—名词并列—动词并列—形容词—形容词修饰名词-副词修饰动词形容词）

2. inspire awe, pride and wonder around the world 引起了全世界的敬畏、骄傲和惊叹

套用：The moment when someone did something inspired awe, pride and wonder around + 范围

e.g. The moment when Ms. Laura, a 60 year-old lady,  dived into water without hesitation to save/rescue the drowning child inspired awe, pride and wonder.

原版文章节选：Upon receiving the quilts for her son and her husband, Betty Skolasky said she felt “pride and awe of the beauty of the quilts.”

3. contrive /kənˈtraɪv/ v 巧妙安排；谋划，策划; will— 设法用意志力驱使；决意 If you will something to happen, you try to make it happen by the power of your thoughts.

4. sooner rather than later 越早越好

5. aberration /ˌæb.əˈreɪ.ʃən/ n. （暂时的）脱离常规；反常现象；异常行为

句子结构分析：The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities.

• 同位语：a goal

• 后置定语：achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities.

will n. 遗嘱； will + 动词； will 实义动词

rather than 而不是—other than 除了；

2. The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). （1）Falling costs, （2）new technologies, （3）Chinese and Indian ambitions, and （4）a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.

知识点：

1. promise to be good, exciting, etc.

e.g. It promises to be a really exciting game. 预计这会是一场非常精彩的比赛。

• tourism

• better communication networks

• mineral exploitation

• mass transportation

什么叫？—分类？—结构

将来1: If + should + 动词原形，would/could/should/might + do.

If I should go to Mars tomorrow, I would bring a book.  

— Should I go to Mars tomorrow, I would bring a book.

3. The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.

thus far—so far 到目前为止

4. Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly NASA and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21 successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth of his shares in the company each year to pay for Blue Origin, a space venture. Virgin Galactic plans to go public this year at a valuation of $1.5bn. As well as capital and ideas, the private sector provides much greater efficiency. According to NASA , developing SpaceX’s Falcon rockets would have cost the agency $4bn; it cost SpaceX a tenth of that.

知识点：

1. come to age  成熟

英释义-If something has come of age, it has reached its full successful development.

2. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total

3. be set to do something 注定会…一定会

4. falcon /ˈfɑːl.kən/ n. 猎鹰

5. Two new commercial models exist or are within reach: the big business of launching and maintaining swarms of communications satellites in low orbits and the niche one of tourism for the rich. The coming year will almost certainly see Virgin and Blue Origin flying passengers on sub-orbital excursions that offer the thrill of weightlessness and a view of the curved edge of Earth against the black sky of space. Virgin claims it might carry almost 1,000 wealthy adventurers a year by 2022. SpaceX is developing a reusable “Starship” larger and much more capable than its Falcons. Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese fashion mogul, has made a down-payment for a Starship trip around the Moon; he intends to go with a crew of artists as early as 2023.

知识点：

mogul /ˈmoʊ.ɡəl/ 权贵

全文朗读

全文及参考翻译：

The next 50 years in space

A new age of space exploration is beginning

It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive

The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.

The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.

The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.

Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly nasa and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21 successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth of his shares in the company each year to pay for Blue Origin, a space venture. Virgin Galactic plans to go public this year at a valuation of $1.5bn. As well as capital and ideas, the private sector provides much greater efficiency. According to nasa, developing SpaceX’s Falcon rockets would have cost the agency $4bn; it cost SpaceX a tenth of that.

Two new commercial models exist or are within reach: the big business of launching and maintaining swarms of communications satellites in low orbits and the niche one of tourism for the rich. The coming year will almost certainly see Virgin and Blue Origin flying passengers on sub-orbital excursions that offer the thrill of weightlessness and a view of the curved edge of Earth against the black sky of space. Virgin claims it might carry almost 1,000 wealthy adventurers a year by 2022. SpaceX is developing a reusable “Starship” larger and much more capable than its Falcons. Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese fashion mogul, has made a down-payment for a Starship trip around the Moon; he intends to go with a crew of artists as early as 2023.

Such possibilities could see the annual revenues of the space industry double to $800bn by 2030, according to ubs, a bank. Still further in the future, space development could remake how humanity lives. Mr Musk hopes to send settlers to Mars. Mr Bezos, the richest man in the world, wants to see millions of people making a living on space stations, perhaps before Armstrong’s footprint marks its centenary.

At a time when Earth faces grim news on climate change, slow growth and fraught politics, space might seem to offer a surprising reason for optimism. But it is neither a panacea nor a bolthole. And to realise its promise, a big problem has to be resolved and a dangerous risk avoided. The big problem is developing the rule of law (see International section). The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declares space to be “the province of all mankind” and forbids claims of sovereignty. That leaves lots of room for interpretation. America says private firms can develop space-based resources; international law is ambiguous.

Who would have the best claim to use the ice at the poles of the Moon for life support? Should Martian settlers be allowed to do what they like to the environment? Who is liable for satellite collisions? Space is already crowded—over 2,000 satellites are in orbit and nasa tracks over 500,000 individual pieces of debris hurtling at velocities of over 27,000km an hour.

Such uncertainties magnify the dangerous risk: the use of force in space. America’s unparalleled ability to project force on Earth depends on its extensive array of satellites. Other nations, knowing this, have built anti-satellite weapons, as America has itself (see Briefing). And military activity in space has no well-tested protocols or rules of engagement.

America, China and India are rapidly increasing their destructive capabilities: blinding military satellites with lasers, jamming their signals to Earth or even blowing them up, causing debris to scatter across the cosmos. They are also turning their armed forces spaceward. Mr Trump plans to set up a Space Force, the first new branch of the armed forces since the air force was created in 1947. On the eve of the annual Bastille Day military parade on July 14th Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, also announced the formation of a new space command.

In Heaven as it is on Earth

It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soyabeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems.

五十年前尼尔·阿姆斯特朗（Neil Armstrong）在月球上留下脚印的那一刻引发了全世界的敬畏、骄傲和惊叹。本报曾撰文道：“从今天开始，人类可以依自己的心愿、凭自己的才智，走进宇宙的任意角落......人类必然能登上各个星球，今天看来无需长久等待。”但事实并非如此。那次登月是非常规行动，目标并非登月本身，而是要彰显美国的强大实力。这一点一旦表明，便无需再重复。迄今为止，全球只有571人进入过轨道；自1972年以来，人类深入太空的距离不比从得梅因到芝加哥远多少。

未来50年的情况看起来将大不一样。成本下降，新技术出现，中国和印度雄心勃勃，新一代企业家涌现，都预示着一个太空开发大胆开拓的新时代。几乎可以肯定的是，这将让富人实现太空旅游，为大众带来更好的通信网络；长远而言，还可能涉及矿产开采甚至大众运输。太空将变得更像是地球的延伸——不仅仅是政府的竞技场，也有企业和私人力量的较量。但要实现这些美好愿景，世界需要建立一套法律体系来管理太空，无论是在和平时期，还是在万一发生战争时。

迄今为止，人类向太空的拓展一直侧重于服务地球上的活动——主要是用于广播和导航的卫星通信。如今，两个方面正在发生变化。首先，地缘政治正助力推动人类的太空探索超越近地轨道的“浅滩”，向深空进发。中国计划在2035年前实现载人登月。特朗普政府希望美国人能在2024年再次踏足月球。因为成本下降，这类耀武扬威的代价较以往更能承受。按现值计算，当年的阿波罗计划耗资数千亿美元，现在只要几百亿美元。

其次，私营部门已经有能力参与进来。从1958年至2009年，几乎所有太空项目的支出都来自国家机构，主要是美国国家航空航天局（以下简称NASA）和五角大楼。过去十年里，私人投资已经增至平均每年20亿美元，占总投资的15％，并且还将进一步上升。去年，伊隆·马斯克的火箭公司SpaceX成功完成了21次卫星发射，市值达330亿美元。亚马逊的创始人杰夫·贝佐斯每年出售自己持有的10亿美元公司股票，用于支持太空探索公司蓝色起源（Blue Origin）。维珍银河（Virgin Galactic）计划今年上市，估值为15亿美元。除了资本和创意，私营部门在效率方面高出一大截。NASA表示，它开发SpaceX那样的猎鹰火箭要花40亿美元，但SpaceX只花了十分之一。

目前有两种新商业模式已经建立或即将实现：向低轨道上发射并维护大量通信卫星的庞大业务，以及富人太空游的利基市场。几乎可以肯定，未来的一年里我们会看到维珍银河和蓝色起源开展亚轨道载客旅行，让旅客体验失重的刺激，以及看到黑暗太空衬托下的地球弧形边缘。维珍银河声称到2022年每年或可运送近1000名富有探险者。SpaceX正在开发一种可重复使用的“星际飞船”，体积比其猎鹰火箭更大，性能强得多。日本时尚大亨前泽友作已经为一艘绕月星际飞船支付了定金，计划最早于2023年和一群艺术家一起飞行。

根据瑞银的数据，这样的前景有望让航天业的年收入在2030年翻一番，达到8000亿美元。在更长远的未来，太空开发可能重塑人类的生活方式。马斯克希望往火星移民。世界首富贝佐斯希望日后有数百万人在太空站生活，也许在阿姆斯特朗登月百年纪念日之前就能做到。

在地球面对气候变化、经济增长放缓和政治令人不安等各种坏消息之际，太空似乎成了一种出人意料的乐观的理由。但它既非万能药，也非避难所。而要实现期望，必须解决一个大问题，避免一个大风险。这个大问题是建立法治。1967年生效的《外层空间条约》宣布太空为“全人类的领地”，禁止提出主权要求。该条约的解释余地很大。美国称私营企业可以开发太空资源，国际法也模棱两可。

谁最有资格使用月球两极的水冰用于生命支持？应该允许火星移民者按自己的意愿改造火星环境吗？谁该对卫星碰撞负责？太空已经拥挤——超过2000颗卫星在轨道上运行，此外NASA发现有超过50万块空间碎片正以超过每小时27,000公里的速度绕地飞行。

这些不确定性强化了一大风险：太空动武。在地球上，美国无可比拟的军事投送能力依赖其广泛的卫星网络。其他国家了解到这一点，已经部署了反卫星武器，美国自己也一样。而太空军事活动并没有经验证的协议或交战规则。

美国、中国和印度都在迅速加强毁灭能力：用激光致盲军事卫星，干扰其发往地球的信号，甚至将其炸毁，导致碎片散布在宇宙中。这些国家还在发展太空武装。特朗普计划建立一支太空部队，这是自1947年空军成立以来美军的第一个新分支。7月14日法国国庆日阅兵的前一天，法国总统马克龙也宣布成立新的太空司令部。

在天如在地

把太空浪漫推崇为又一个“狂野西部”是错误的。太空并非什么供人类摆脱束缚、改天换命的无政府主义前沿世界。要实现人们对太空的美好愿景需要治理规则。在地球上连钢筋和大豆的贸易规则都难达成一致的时候，这似乎要打上一个巨大的问号。但如果没有规则，对地球之外所有探索的潜力至少要再等50年才能实现。而最坏的情况则是，太空会加剧地球的问题。