【原版杂志阅读】18期 Day 1：（The economist）Does Apple’s boss have a Plan B in China

Schumpeter

Does Apple’s boss have a Plan B in China?

Brace for an iPhoney trade war

Long before Tim Cook became Apple’s boss, when his job was to wring costs out of the company’s supply chain, he learned of a problem with a supplier in China. “This is really bad,” he told his staff. “Someone should be in China driving this.” Thirty minutes later he saw one of his executives sitting at a table. “Why are you still here?” he asked quietly. The executive stood up, drove directly to San Francisco’s airport and bought a ticket to China.

This anecdote, recounted in Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs, Apple’s founder, is one of only a few tales in print that offer an insight into the management style of Mr Cook, who took over from Jobs shortly before he died of cancer in October 2011. It is telling. While Jobs, the irascible creative genius behind Apple’s bestselling products, stole the show, Mr Cook, who is both courtly and deeply private, plugged away behind the scenes to cement a relationship crucial to Apple’s soaring success: that with China.

一、速记单词：

1. wring /rɪŋ/ v. 拧；绞

词汇助记：

1）词素：wr- 拧巴, wrong  错误

2. recount  /rɪˈkaʊnt/ v. 讲述；叙述；描述

词汇助记：

1）前缀：re- 再一次

2）词根：count-数， accountant 会计

3. irascible  /ɪˈræs.ə.bəl/ adj. 易怒的，性情暴躁的

词汇助记：

1）词根：ir-愤怒（ire 愤怒）

2）后缀：-ascible 形容词后缀

furious

4. courtly /ˈkɔːrt.li/ adj. 有礼貌的；有教养的；彬彬有礼的

词汇助记：

1）词汇：court 法庭

2）后缀：-ly 放在名词后面表形容词

5. crucial /ˈkruː.ʃəl/  adj. 至关重要的；关键的；决定性的

词汇助记：

1）词根：cruc- 十字形—-cross

2）后缀：-ial 形容词， special  特别的，特殊的

          N

 W —-B —-E
          S

二、段落精讲：

1. Long before Tim Cook became Apple’s boss, when his job was to wring costs out of the company’s supply chain, he learned of a problem with a supplier in China. “This is really bad,” he told his staff. “Someone should be in China driving this.” Thirty minutes later he saw one of his executives sitting at a table. “Why are you still here?” he asked quietly. The executive stood up, drove directly to San Francisco’s airport and bought a ticket to China.

写作语料库：

1） long before 很久以前；before long 不久后

2) wring costs of …缩减成本，压缩成本—-out of habit 出于习惯

e.g. I just did it out of habit.

3) supply chain 供应链

4）learn of 了解到

5）drive someone crazy 把某人逼疯

I got a ticket for speeding.

参考翻译：

早在蒂姆·库克成为苹果公司的老板前很久，他曾负责压缩公司的供应链成本，那时他了解到中国一个供应商出了问题。“这太糟了，”他对下属说，“应该有人去中国推推这个事情。”30分钟后，看到手下一名主管还坐在桌子旁，他低声问道：“你怎么还在这儿？” 这位主管马上起身，直接开车到旧金山机场，买了一张去中国的机票。

2. This anecdote, recounted in Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs, Apple’s founder, is one of only a few tales in print that offer an insight into the management style of Mr Cook, who took over from Jobs shortly before he died of cancer in October 2011. It is telling. While Jobs, the irascible creative genius behind Apple’s bestselling products, stole the show, Mr Cook, who is both courtly and deeply private, plugged away behind the scenes to cement a relationship crucial to Apple’s soaring success: that with China.

语法识别：

1）过去分词作后置定语： recounted in Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs

2）同位语：Apple’s founder

3）定语从句：that offer an insight into the management style of Mr Cook

4）定语从句：who took over from Jobs shortly

5）时间状语从句：before he died of cancer in October 2011.

6）同位语：the irascible creative genius behind Apple’s bestselling products

7）定语从句：who is both courtly and deeply private

8）形容词短语作后置定语：名词 + 形容词短语，形容词短语作后置定语，修饰前面的名词。crucial to Apple’s soaring success

写作语料库：

1）offer an insight into …让人看到

2）management style 管理风格

3）take over 接管

4）plug away 坚持不懈

5）cement a relationship  巩固关系

参考翻译：

这则轶事出现在沃尔特·艾萨克森（Walter Isaacson）撰写的苹果创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯的传记中。这是少数见诸文字的、能让人一窥库克管理风格的故事之一。它很能说明问题。乔布斯于2011年10月因患癌去世，在这之前不久库克接掌苹果。暴躁易怒的乔布斯是打造出苹果畅销产品的创意天才，在台前风头无两。而库克则彬彬有礼且极为内敛，在幕后不懈努力，巩固了对苹果的飞速成功至关重要的一种关系：与中国的关系。

全文及参考翻译

Schumpeter

Does Apple’s boss have a Plan B in China?

Brace for an iPhoney trade war

Long before Tim Cook became Apple’s boss, when his job was to wring costs out of the company’s supply chain, he learned of a problem with a supplier in China. “This is really bad,” he told his staff. “Someone should be in China driving this.” Thirty minutes later he saw one of his executives sitting at a table. “Why are you still here?” he asked quietly. The executive stood up, drove directly to San Francisco’s airport and bought a ticket to China.

This anecdote, recounted in Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs, Apple’s founder, is one of only a few tales in print that offer an insight into the management style of Mr Cook, who took over from Jobs shortly before he died of cancer in October 2011. It is telling. While Jobs, the irascible creative genius behind Apple’s bestselling products, stole the show, Mr Cook, who is both courtly and deeply private, plugged away behind the scenes to cement a relationship crucial to Apple’s soaring success: that with China.

In the early days of Apple, Jobs wanted to make his Macintosh computers in America. With his trademark obsessiveness, he built a factory of pure white to produce them (and wore white gloves to check for dust). When Mr Cook joined the company in 1998 he changed all that, deploying his soothing Alabama lilt and a fearsome work ethic (he gets up at 4am) to forge an unrivalled supply chain running through Asia. Today labels on nearly all iDevices read, “Designed by Apple in California. Assembled in China”.

Mr Cook’s bet on China extended beyond its factories to its consumers. Sales to the region have risen from next-to-nothing in 2010 to $52bn last year, or almost a fifth of Apple’s revenues. Since Donald Trump’s election in 2016, “Tim Apple” (as America’s president once called him) has jetted to Washington and Beijing to try to ease rising trade tensions between the two superpowers. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, says Mr Cook “knows how to navigate the political mind”.

Given his reputation as a logistical mastermind, it is worth asking why he has ignored the first rule of supply-chain management: the risk of keeping too many important eggs in one basket. In Mr Cook’s case, that basket is China. The trade bust-up is getting uglier. If it leads to an anti-American backlash in China, it could spell trouble for Apple—and for Mr Cook personally.

Mr Cook’s lobbying has helped Apple avoid direct hits from Mr Trump’s tariffs, already imposed on $250bn-worth of Chinese imports. But its shares have fallen by almost 12% in the past month. On June 1st, after The Economist went to press, China was expected to retaliate with tariffs on $60bn of American goods, including components for Apple devices. Mr Trump has threatened a levy of 25% on $300bn more of imports if trade talks do not produce a breakthrough. This would cover the iPhone, by far Apple’s biggest source of revenue. Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates that it could add $160 to the cost of a $999 iPhone xs. Apple could absorb the cost or pass it on to buyers. Either way, profits would suffer.

A more immediate threat may be a Chinese reprisal for the Trump administration’s decision in May, on national-security grounds, to stop American companies from supplying Huawei, China’s tech champion (and the biggest seller of smartphones in China), with chips, software and other technology. A Chinese consumer boycott of Apple products could accelerate their shift towards other, cheaper brands. Because of the trade tensions, Citi, a bank, has halved its forecast for iPhone sales in China in the second half of this year, from almost 14.5m to 7.2m units.

Others reckon that Apple could offset Chinese losses by luring customers away from Huawei in other countries—but only if it could continue to churn them out in Chinese factories. Although Apple has tentatively started production of some iPhones in India for local customers, it appears if anything to have increased its China exposure, even as Mr Trump’s trade bluster has intensified. According to a review of Apple’s top 200 suppliers by the Nikkei Asian Review, a Japanese publication, last year those from China (41) exceeded those from America (37) for the first time—though Apple stresses the importance of its American supply chain. China has recently released draft cyber-security regulations that cover threats to national security and supply chains. Andrew Gilholm of Control Risks, a consultancy, says these could be weaponised against big American firms in China if the situation deteriorates.

That would be the nuclear option. It looks unlikely for the time being. The costs for China would be huge; Mr Dediu estimates that Apple contributes about $24bn a year to China’s economy. Some 1.5m Chinese help assemble Apple products. A further 2.5m Chinese software engineers create apps for the ios operating system. Appetite for punishment may be weak. On May 26th Ren Zhengfei, Huawei’s boss, told Bloomberg tv that he would be the first to protest if China hits back against Apple. “Apple is my teacher, it’s in the lead,” he said. “As a student why go against my teacher? Never.”

Mr Ren can always change his mind. So can China. Whereas Huawei claims to have a Plan B to survive its blacklisting by America, and Samsung, a rival smartphone-maker from South Korea, is shifting supply chains from China, Apple appears to have no clear alternative to assembly in China. Few other places possess the expertise to produce the high-end components that Apple needs. The existing network would take years to unscramble.

On Apple watch

One fix would be for Apple to develop another indispensable product that no self-respecting affluent Chinese consumer could do without. For all his success, Mr Cook has not yet managed this. Another would be to develop services that do not need production in China. Apple’s much-trailed announcement in March of new video-streaming, payments and other services shows it is trying. They may prove a hit, but would be no substitute for the iPhone. Mr Cook must be hoping that he has not miscalculated the risks to the supply chains he has so intricately engineered.

早在蒂姆·库克成为苹果公司的老板前很久，他曾负责压缩公司的供应链成本，那时他了解到中国一个供应商出了问题。“这太糟了，”他对下属说，“应该有人去中国推推这个事情。”30分钟后，看到手下一名主管还坐在桌子旁，他低声问道：“你怎么还在这儿？” 这位主管马上起身，直接开车到旧金山机场，买了一张去中国的机票。

这则轶事出现在沃尔特·艾萨克森（Walter Isaacson）撰写的苹果创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯的传记中。这是少数见诸文字的、能让人一窥库克管理风格的故事之一。它很能说明问题。乔布斯于2011年10月因患癌去世，在这之前不久库克接掌苹果。暴躁易怒的乔布斯是打造出苹果畅销产品的创意天才，在台前风头无两。而库克则彬彬有礼且极为内敛，在幕后不懈努力，巩固了对苹果的飞速成功至关重要的一种关系：与中国的关系。

在苹果创立初期，乔布斯想在美国生产自己的麦金塔电脑。在他标志性的“执念”的驱使下，他建造了一座纯白色的工厂来生产它们（还戴上白手套检查有没有灰尘）。当库克于1998年加入公司时，他改变了这一切。库克讲话带着舒缓的阿拉巴马口音，工作勤勉得可怕（每天早上4点起床）。他打造出了一个无与伦比的贯穿亚洲的供应链。今天几乎所有苹果设备的标签上都写着“由苹果于加州设计，在中国组装”。

库克押宝中国，不仅是看上了那里的工厂，还有那里的消费者。苹果在中国的销售额从2010年的微乎其微增长到去年的520亿美元，占苹果总收入的近五分之一。2016年特朗普当选后，“蒂姆·苹果”（特朗普曾这样叫他）曾飞赴华盛顿和北京，试图缓解两个超级大国之间日益加剧的贸易紧张局势。科技分析师贺拉斯·迪杜（Horace Dediu）表示，库克“知道如何应对政治思维”。

鉴于库克拥有物流规划大师的声名，值得问一问他何以会忽视供应链管理的第一条法则：把太多重要的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里会有危险。对库克而言，这个篮子就是中国。贸易纷争日益激烈，如果在中国引发反美浪潮，可能会给苹果及库克本人带来麻烦。

特朗普已对价值2500亿美元的中国进口商品加征关税，库克的游说帮助苹果避免了直接打击。但公司股价在过去一个月下跌了近12%。6月1日起中国对价值600亿美元的美国商品加征报复性关税，其中包括苹果设备的零部件。特朗普威胁如果贸易谈判无法取得突破，将对另外3000亿美元的中国商品征收25%的关税。iPhone也将受影响，而iPhone绝对是苹果最大的收入来源。摩根士丹利估计，加征关税可能会让售价999美元的iPhone XS的成本增加160美元。苹果可以自己承担这些成本，或将之转嫁给消费者。但无论哪种方式，其利润都会受影响。

而更紧迫、直接的威胁可能缘于华为事件。5月，特朗普政府以国家安全为由，阻止美国公司向这家中国的领军科技企业（同时也是中国最大的智能手机销售商）提供芯片、软件和其他技术。对此中国可能会发起报复。一旦中国消费者开始抵制苹果，他们转向其他更便宜品牌的趋势便会加速。虑及两国贸易紧张，花旗银行将今年下半年中国的iPhone销量预测调低了一半，从近1450万台下调到720万台。

其他观点认为，苹果可以在其他国家吸引走华为的客户，以此抵消在中国市场的损失——但前提是它能继续在中国的工厂生产产品。虽然苹果已在印度尝试为本地客户生产部分iPhone，但这么做似乎却只是增加了源自中国的风险，即使特朗普的贸易威胁已经升级。根据日本的《日经亚洲评论》对苹果前200大供应商的盘点，去年中国供应商（41家）的数量首次超过了美国（37家）——尽管苹果一直在强调其美国供应链的重要性。中国近期发布了网络安全法草案，其中包括对国家安全和供应链的威胁。咨询公司Control Risks的安德鲁·吉尔霍姆（Andrew Gilholm）表示，如果局势恶化，中国可能会以这些法规作为武器来对付在华大型美国公司。

那将是启动“核选项”。就目前来看还不太可能。这么做会让中国付出巨大的代价：迪杜估计，苹果每年对中国经济的贡献约为240亿美元。约150万中国工人参与组装苹果产品。另有250万名中国软件工程师为iOS操作系统创建应用。中国开展报复的动力可能很弱。5月26日，华为老板任正非在接受彭博电视专访时说，如果中国打击苹果，他会第一个站出来反对。“苹果是我的老师，在前面前进，”他说，“作为一个学生，为什么要反对老师？永远不会的。”

任正非随时都可以改主意。中国也一样。华为声称自己有备选方案，即使被美国列入黑名单也能生存；它在智能手机领域的韩国竞争对手三星正在将供应链转撤出中国。而苹果除了在中国组装产品之外，似乎没有明显的替代方案。没几个地方具备专业能力来生产苹果所需的高端组件。现有供应网络需要多年才能厘清。

苹果密切关注

一个解决办法就是苹果再研发出一件谁也离不开的产品，让喜欢好东西的中国富人们觉得没它不行。虽然库克功勋卓著，但这方面尚无建树。另一个办法是开发不需要在中国生产的服务。苹果公司在3月公布了此前大量预告的新视频流、支付和其他服务，表明它正在朝这个方向努力。这些服务也许会大获成功，但还不能取代iPhone。库克肯定希望，对于自己精心设计的供应链所面临的风险，他的估计没有错。